Best Brock Purdy prop bets: 8 prop bets to make for Super Bowl 2024 from rushing yards to scoring props – The Athletic
By Keff CiardelloFeb 11, 2024
The Chiefs beat the 49ers in overtime to win Super Bowl LVIII.
Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant as the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, has seen his relevancy reach an all-time high after leading the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl in just his second season. Super Bowl 58 will be the sixth postseason game for Purdy in his young career, boasting a 4-1 record through his first five playoff appearances.
He set the 49ers’ franchise record for single-season passing yards this year with 4,280, while leading the league in yards per attempt (9.6) and quarterback passer rating (113) during the regular season. Along the way, he earned a Pro Bowl nomination and some MVP consideration.
Despite all of that, there has hardly been a more polarizing underdog figure in the NFL than Purdy – at least, polarizing in terms of his status compared to his peers. Is he a future Hall of Fame inductee that every team passed on until the end of the draft, like Tom Brady? Or is he an overachieving game manager who steps up in big moments but ultimately benefits more from the system and talent around him than his true abilities, à la Joe Flacco (on the Ravens)?
For now, with no Super Bowl wins (yet), he’s neither. Time will tell whether he falls in one of those two categories or somewhere in the middle.
But we can’t bet futures on the career trajectory of athletes (at least not yet), so let’s focus on where we can place our Purdy prop bets: Super Bowl LVIII.
Odds update live and are from BetMGM.
Super Bowl MVP
Purdy has the second-best odds on BetMGM to win Super Bowl MVP behind Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Thirteen of the last 20 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks (65 percent), including two of the last three (both being Mahomes). If the 49ers win, Purdy has the best chance at taking home MVP, and you have a chance to more than double your bet.
In two playoff games against the Packers and the Lions, Purdy averaged 259.5 yards passing. That’s 14 more yards than the starting over/under for this game, but he’ll be facing a stingier Chiefs pass defense that finished the regular season fourth in passing yards allowed (176.5) while allowing 209.7 yards through the air in three playoff wins. Purdy will get close, but the under seems to be the move here, especially given San Francisco’s propensity to run the ball. It might not be worth the trouble at -115 either way.
Purdy tossed 31 touchdowns in 16 regular season games – 1.9 per game – but he has just two in the playoffs and four total in his last four starts. The Chiefs’ defense allowed three passing touchdowns in three playoff games, just under their regular season average (1.1 per game) after allowing 19 in 17 games. Purdy started at +100 to hit the under and -135 to go over. With the 49ers likely leaning on the run and the Chiefs’ tough pass defense, that under is more appealing.
The Chiefs are near the top of the league in fewest passing yards allowed but near the bottom in interceptions with eight. Even though the Chiefs’ opportunistic defensive backs snagged two picks in the playoffs, Purdy has just 12 total interceptions all year (11 regular season, one in the playoffs). The odds aren’t great either way here.
Purdy has only attempted 31 or more passes five times all year, but two of those times were the last two games in the playoffs. He was right at 31 in two of those five games, so that’s truly only three times he hit this over. Not the most tantalizing odds on over or under here, but I’m going with under. Plus, Purdy has hit his pass attempts under in eight of his last 10 away games, according to BetMGM.
The over is tempting with these odds, but Purdy has only hit that over four times all year, including once in the playoffs with 23 completions against Green Bay in the divisional round. He got close with 20 completions in the NFC Championship against Detroit, but with the Chiefs not allowing much leeway through the air, there’s a reason the under is favored.
Passing + rushing yards
Purdy didn’t reach double figures in rushing yards in the last six games he played in the regular season, but he has in both playoff games this year, including 48 yards on five attempts last time out against the Lions. While the over on passing yards for Purdy is dicey given the Chiefs’ defensive backs, the 49ers will likely ride its league-leading rushing attack, which could give Purdy more chances to get those yards on the ground and bring his total up.
49ers first touchdown scorer
Okay, this one might not have the best chance at hitting, but you can’t deny those odds are attractive. The 49ers tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns during the regular season with 27, adding five more in the postseason, but Purdy hasn’t hit pay dirt on the ground since Week 4 with only two rushing scores all year. Some might say the odds are not in his favor. Others might say that he is due.
Not to mention, Kansas City has allowed successful plays on 46.3 percent of rush attempts by its opponents – second worst in the league – while the 49ers lead the league in successful run plays at 50.3 percent of rushes this season, according to BetMGM. Purdy wouldn’t just have to score for the first time in four months; he’d have to be the first Niner to reach the end zone in the game for this to be a winner. High risk, high reward, as they say.
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(Photo of Brock Purdy: Michael Zagaris / San Francisco 49ers / Getty Images)
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